The Future

So for thirty-eight days I worried. I nervously thought of the wasted picks the Sonics made the past few years capped off by the genius selection of Mohammed Sene at #10 last year. I had more confidence in Lenny Wilkins if he was drunk, blind, tied up, and decapitated than I could have in Rick Sund, but still I felt nervous.

Then the Supes hired Sam Presti from the Spurs. He changed everything. Both in my mind and in reality after today.

I wanted Sam Presti, but I also wanted Marc Iavaroni. Once Iavaroni went to the Grizzlies, I knew the run and gun Phoenix Suns style would be out the window. I should have known that the minute they hired Presti. He grew up in the San Antonio Spurs system. Presti started as an intern and grew into an assistant GM. He wouldn't stand for horrible defense anymore.

Yesterday Presti basically said no one was untouchable except the number two pick. And today he proved it by trading Ray Allen, the face of the franchise, to Boston for the number five overall pick, Delonte West, and Wally Szczerbiak. When this trade was announced to the crowd at the Sonics draft party, the nearly 2,000 people booed. They are idiots.

Allen did a lot of great offensive things for the Sonics. He shot the basketball better than nearly anyone in the league over the past four and a half years. And he definitely proved to be the go to guy when they needed a basket, usually with a pull up jumper off the dribble or coming off a double screen for a three. Points were not a problem, as they weren't really in general for the Sonics. But Ray Allen is a horrible defender, one of the worst in the league. He rebounds okay and can pass pretty well. And the Sonics went 31-51 with him and Rashard Lewis.

Presti decided to change the whole thing. Kevin Durant becomes the face of the franchise. In fact, only 12 minutes after they drafted him, a commercial aired with Durant dunking on people and the Sonics welcoming him to Seattle while posting the number for season tickets. I nearly called.

Kevin Durant will end up being better than Ray Allen. I think most people would agree with this. But could they have played together? Yes and no. They could have and along with Luke Ridnour and maybe Lewis given up 120 points per game. Now they add West who adds to the backcourt depth while Jeff Green comes in as the number two option to Durant.

They get younger and probably not great next season. But really will they be worse than 31-51? Maybe not.

The Sonics are not expected to re-sign Lewis now, so hopefully a sign and trade becomes possible. And Presti is not done. Rumors still fly about Ridnour (as he is also awful defensively) and Nick Collison. I think this team will look completely different next season and we will see if they are better.

All I know is this, I am trying to buy some season tickets right now. I wouldn't be if Allen and Lewis were here instead of Durant and Green.

Oden's Seattle Knowledge

Draftexpress.com interviewed Greg Oden on a variety of topics. When they approached the possibility of him playing in Seattle, Oden responded with this.

I was just watching ‘He Got Game’ yesterday with Ray Allen. You know what? Seattle was a team, that every time I saw them play they were beating good teams. I don’t know how they didn’t make the playoffs. When it came up I was like ‘they didn’t make the playoffs?’ They were a team when you see them on TV, the arena is sold out and the fans were going crazy. I know it rains in both places, so wherever I go, I need to get a raincoat!

Hmm, Greg. I am not sure you got your facts straight.

1. Good teams don't go 31-51.
2. You apparently think the Sonics were in the movie 'He Got Game'. Do you know that is fictional?
3. By seeing them on TV, do you mean one of the eight times they appeared on national television last season (three of which were on NBA TV)?
4. Oh and by beating good teams, you must mean the Sonics 10-36 record against teams that made the playoffs this season. That includes a stellar 2-9 mark against the four conference finalists.
5. Yes, and of course you meant not sold out when you said sold out arena with crazy fans. As you know Gregory, the Sonics averaged 15,955 fans per game, good for 25th in the league.

Can't wait to see you in person. Thanks for doing some good research.

Now What?

"Pacific Northwest, take the spotlight now" - Blue Scholars.

Blazers #1. Sonics #2.

Whether ESPN reporters want to admit it or not, the East Coast bias is in the house. When Steven A. Smith says this is the worst thing that could happen to the league, he shows a ridiculous East Coast bias. No one outside of Boston cares if the Celtics will be good again. And absolutely no one cares about Philly.

It doesn't matter. It simply does not matter if reporters like it or not, the fact remains that the two best players to enter the NBA since LeBron James will be heading to the Pacific Northwest. The Blazers and Sonics will be on national television every time they play next year. It is fantastic. Even if the Sonics move after this season, it will be ok.

See, I get the perfect choice. If the Sonics stay, I get to watch Kevin Durant for the next 10 years. If they leave, I get to choose. I can keep my allegiance with the Sonics and root for them in Oklahoma City or Kansas City or Las Vegas. Or I can say screw that since the team screwed us and root for the next closest team, the Portland Trail Blazers featuring Greg Oden. Best case scenario all around.

And no, it isn't sports bigamy. Here are the rules for rooting for a team on the professional level:

1. If they are in your city, you root for them unless:
a. you grew up in a different city
b. the team moved away, breaking your heart, and then came back or never came back
2. If there is no team in your city or 1a or 1b applies, you may root for the next closest team by location
3. your best friend or someone very close to you plays for a professional team

That is it. No other rules work. So you can't just decide that the San Antonio Spurs or the Houston Astros are your favorite team. And you really can't wear an Angels jersey and hat when they go to the World Series after claiming the Astros were your favorite team.

Thus I get to choose for one time only. And let me tell you, it will be hard to choose the Sonics if they move. Consider the following. I would never see them play in person, they broke my heart, I coached a current Blazer, and one of the top three Washington basketball players in history is their best current player. Not to mention Greg Oden looking like he is 91 years old as a third-year pro.

Anyway, back to the Supes. After they draft Kevin Durant, what do they do? First they need to hire a General Manager. The current hot list candidates (despite no formal recognition of interviewing anyone) are Detroit Pistons assistant G.M. Scott Perry, San Antonio Spurs Vice President and Assistant G.M. Sam Presti, and Phoenix Suns Vice President David Griffin. The only one they can actually interview right now is Griffin. Thus we must wait. All three would be great choices as those teams consistently make smart personnel decisions.

Detroit's salaries for next year stand at $57.6 million. San Antonio pays out $60.9 million and Phoenix $76.5 million. The Suns obviously are over the cap (will be set somewhere between $53 million and $58 million this summer), but compete for the NBA championship, or at least have that caliber of team. Obviously San Antonio and Detroit are in good shape as they look to be headed toward a NBA Finals showdown.

The Spurs consistently make brilliant personnel moves from getting the best out of veterans for reasonable prices (Michael Finley - 3 years, $9 million, Robert Horry - 3 years, $9 million, so-so Brent Barry - 4 years, $23 million). San Antonio also drafted Tony Parker 28th overall and Manu Ginobli 57th overall. Meanwhile the Pistons re-built by grabbing veterans who either did not perform or wore out their welcome such as Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace. They also chose to not overpay for Ben Wallace, while drafting Tayshaun Prince 23rd overall. (They obviously blew the Darko pick). The Suns spent big on Steve Nash, but added Boris Diaw through trade and traded for Leandro Barbosa on draft day (28th overall) and Amare Stoudamire (12th) on draft day. They got Shawn Marion at number nine. In addition, they signed Raja Bell to a good deal (5 years, $24 million).

Who the Sonics select as head coach will be more crucial to the future of the team. The candidates thrown out in the media include Marc Iavaroni (assistant coach Suns), Jim Cleamons (assistant Lakers), Kurt Rambis (assistant Lakers), Sam Vincent (assistant coach Mavs), Dwayne Casey, and Paul Silas. This list confirms in my mind that the only man for the job is Iavaroni. He has been linked to the Memphis job, but the Sonics getting Durant may change his mind.

They go get Iavaroni as coach and any of the listed three as General Manager. Off to a good start. Now the decision facing the squad is the future of Rashard Lewis. No way do you let him walk away. There are only two options - sign him to keep or sign and trade.

The Sonics advantage lies in the collective bargaining agreement. It states that a player with Larry Bird rights (meaning a player who has been with a team for three years without being traded or released in that time) can sign with his team for more money and more years. Thus Seattle can offer Lewis a six year deal while other teams can only offer five years. In addition, the Sonics can increase the value of each year by 10.5% while other teams can only increase 8% each season. Since Rashard has been in the league for eight years, the Sonics can offer him a six year deal worth $112 million. Is he worth that much?

The simple answer is no. Carmelo Anthony (4 years, $63 million), LeBron James (3 years, $42 million), and Dwayne Wade (3 years, $42 million) all set the market for superstars last summer. The Bulls signed Ben Wallace to a 4 year, $60 million deal, while Peja Stojakovic (5 years, $64 million), Al Harrington (4 years, $39 million), Jason Terry (6 years, $57 million), and Nene (5 years, $60 million) really set the market for Rashard Lewis-type players. The summer previous Joe Johnson inked a 5 year, $70 million deal, while Ray Allen (5 years, $80 million) and Michael Redd (6 years, $91 million) re-signed with their current teams.

Lewis' value lies around the Johnson/Stojakovic/Terry/Redd range. The comparison between Lewis, Redd, and Johnson is important to find his value. Michael Redd holds career averages of 20.1 points and 4.2 rebounds while shooting 39.2% from three, 85% from the line, and 45% overall from the field. In his contract year, Redd put up 23.0 points per game with 4.2 rebounds while shooting 35.5% from three. He is a one-time All-Star. Joe Johnson's career stats show 15.6 points per game and 4.0 rebounds per game while shooting 37.6% from downtown, 76.4% from the line, and 44% overall. In his contract year Johnson put up 17.1 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 47.8% from three (ridiculous) and 75% from the line. He is also a one-time All-Star. Meanwhile Rashard holds career numbers of 16.6 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game while knocking down 38.6% from threee, 80.1% from the line, and 46% from the field. Last year he put up 22.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 84.1% free throw percentage with 39.3% from three and 46% overall.

In his contract year, Rashard Lewis put up more impressive stats with better shooting percentages than both Johnson and Redd. So his value lies around the 6 years, $90 million mark. But what about the fact that he plays the same position as Durant? Not a problem if you hire Iavaroni (this is assuming that Iavaroni's coaching philosophy falls in line with Mike D'Antoni). Look at the potential rotation.

Starters

PG Luke Ridnour

SG Ray Allen

SF Rashard Lewis

PF Kevin Durant

C Chris Wilcox

Bench

PG Earl Watson

C Robert Swift

PF Nick Collison

SG/SF Michael Gelabale/Damien Wilkins

If this team played up-tempo like the Suns, they could win a lot of games and fans would watch. Try to slow down, run sets, and play defense much like Bob Hill did this season and you are looking at another lottery pick. They would win more games, but still have issues. Especially since none of those starters can defend at all. Actually that might be the worst defense for a starting unit of all-time. So you have to run and outscore people. They can do that with this group.

Ridnour, Collison, and Wilcox are perfectly suited for an up-tempo style. Neither Collison or Wilcox can score with any sort of consistency in the post a.l.a. Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett. Ridnour shows his skill in the open court as a very good passer and decent penetrator. His value diminishes once the game becomes a walk it up affair. Lewis, Allen, and Durant will be able to score in either style, but they become better if the Sonics play fast. Durant can use his athletic ability in the open court and Lewis doesn't have to try and prove he can go by people with the dribble (which he can't, despite the contrary opinion often talked about this past season). Allen hits most of his threes in transition. It is perfect. They can even use the veteran mid-level exception on a veteran like Desmond Mason who can defend and play in the open court.

Now what if they traded Rashard Lewis? This is more of a possibility than Lewis signing with another team. He wants the most money he can get, especially since this will be the biggest contract he ever signs. In 2002, Lewis spurned the Dallas Mavericks for the Sonics when he signed a seven year, $60 million deal. The only team this offseason that he would consider (unless the Sonics completely lowball him) is the Orlando Magic. They will push for him or Vince Carter and with Dwight Howard down low, that would be an intriguing possibility. Of course, that wouldn't make them better.

You need three legitimate scorers in the NBA to be successful. Out of the sixteen playoff teams, nine squads have three guys average more than 15 points per game. Detroit doesn't, but they do have five guys in double figures and really on that as their offense. The worst teams in the league usually have only one or two scorers. The Sonics, in addition to their porous defense, faced this issue with Lewis and Allen. Seattle had no one else to consistenly put the ball in the hoop and take advantage of mismatches. Durant will provide that.

So if you trade Lewis, you need to get someone back in return who will score. With this in mind a trade for Jason Kidd does not qualify. The Nets might consider it if they don't sign Vince (which does not seem likely right now, but it is early). They get the next big free agent in Lewis and they can hand over the team to Marcus Williams as Kidd will most likely demand a trade. The Sonics would have a big upgrade at the point, but still only two scorers. How about to Portland for Zach Randolph? Interesting possibility, but who wants Randolph's attitude? When he is good and playing hard, he is really good. Now you have a low post scorer and two elite perimeter scorers. If it worked out, the Sonics would be really good. But if Randolph acted like he usually does, it could be really bad. A gamble to say the least.

What about Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, or Shawn Marion? All rumored to be tradeable, but the Pacers, Timberwolves, and Suns do not get better with a trade for Rashard. The Suns might be ok with the trade, but Marion provides better defense and rebounding. Lewis would give them a better scorer.

It appears the best option is to keep him and I am fine with that as long as they play fast. With Iavaroni as coach they can do that and be successful. With Durant, they can hopefully save a franchise in a city that may be a whole lot interested in the team staying.

F&%$ YEAH!

Sweet eight pound, six ounce baby Jesus!

Driving in my car and hearing that the Sonics will be in the top three got me anxious. Real anxious. I would rather have the number five pick than the number three pick. It has to be a top two! Please.

Number two! YES!

Kevin Durant will be a Sonic. I repeat, Kevin Durant will be a Sonic. Oh that sound so good.

I can't get over how excited I am. The only thing that can mess this up would be them drafting someone else or trading the pick. But I trust Lenny Wilkins. He and the assistant GM on the radio both mentioned that you can't go wrong with either of the top two. That means they will take one of them. (Genius, I know).

I will have more tomorrow on what the Sonics should do overall now and a mock draft. I can't think straight yet, need time to digest this.

I think I am going to go buy season tickets now.

Sonics Lottery

I played the NBA draft lottery game on ESPN.com today as the real lottery plays out tomorrow night.

In the ten times I spun the internet wheel, the Sonics landed the #1 overall one time and the #2 overall one time. They took Greg Oden #1 (sweet baby Jesus, that would be nice) and Kevin Durant when they landed #2 (bye bye Rashard).

All the other times they landed between #3 and #7. Each time Chad Ford had them taking Yi Jianlian, the Chinese seven foot dude.

Two things. Number one - I hate you Chad Ford. Number two - if this actually happened I will become a Blazers fan one year early.