Almost Famous (The Return)

Joe:

I wish I could say my delayed response was because I was in my basement developing some intricate formula for figuring which bum-sticking and gambling-addicted baseball players do and don't belong in the Hall of Fame. But the truth is, I don't have a basement. No, my delay has been due to far more selfish reasons, specifically the upkeep of my own blog, BrandSpankingJew.com. It's amazing how much time I'm willing to spend on something that has literally zero readers.

We last left off with you taking over the Pittsburgh Pirates, which I thought was a pretty sound decision. I haven't the first damn clue whether you could turn them into a winner, but I do think you would love Pittsburgh. The Rust Belt in general is an underrated place to live: If you can find a job, there is a wonderful life to be had there. There is natural beauty, passion about sports, and a devotion to whiskey rivaled only by Irish priests. Pittsburgh specifically boasts a surprisingly hilly terrain intersected by those three rivers, and it's lively and gorgeous. I think you should move there regardless of whether you own the Pirates. I'd like to have a friend in Pittsburgh.

Your question, I believe, was who do I believe belongs in the Hall of Fame, out of Bonds, Giambi, Rose, Rodriguez and Clemens. My answer: All of them except Giambi.

Rose is the easy one. There are so many racists and drunks and other shitheads in the Hall -- not to mention some unknown number who surely gambled on baseball -- I never understood the refusal to vote him in. He made a mistake, he totally refused to apologize for it. So what? The dude could rake. Let him in.

The steroid thing is obviously more complicated, but the same princple applies: Bonds, Clemens and Rodriguez were certain Hall of Famers, steroids or not. And you can't punish them for embracing a culture you nurtured. Hell, a culture we nurtured. Giambi is part of a much more complicated group, with Sosa, McGwire, and the rest. His numbers (.284, 400 homeruns) are borderline to begin with, and almost all of it was achieved during the height of the steroid era. I couldn't vote him in. Sosa and McGwire are tougher, but I couldn't vote for them either.

I'm always surprised by writers' and commentators' attempts to come up with some uniform rule they'll apply to the Steroids Era. To me, you vote the way you always did: You take all the information you have about a player, statistical and anecdotal and emotional, and you make the best decision possible, trying depend more on stats than emotions and anecdotes. You cast the vote, you hope you got it right, and you move onto the next guy.

But whatever you do, you put Bonds in. 'Cause when that dude was on 'roids, he was the best hitter of all time.

So here's something you can explain to me: I stayed home to watch golf this morning, only to have it get rained out. So naturally, I flipped to the soccer game, and made an interesting discovery: Brazil is really good at soccer. And we suck. It actually looked like a professional team playing a college team. And I don't understand why. We have 100 million more people, and it seems like every park I drive past on a Saturday morning is littered with soccer players. Yet if we play a team whose guys have funny names, we inevitably lose. It seems like we should at least be competitive, but we're not. Am I wrong? Is the rest of the world's devotion to the game going to always leave the U.S. behind? Or are the soccer powers that be somehow screwing up, a la the 2004 Olympic men's basketball team?

Brian:

Joseph,

It is good to know you are working hard on being a Jew as documented by brandspankingjew.com. I think that a Rabbi may help you in the spiritual realm, as well as figuring out why you are so wrong about steroids and baseball.

I agree that Bonds, Clemens, and ARod were all good players before they encountered good old roids, but to say sure fire Hall of Famers is ridiculous. Bonds hit 45 or more homers once in his career before injecting himself and then did that very same feat four years in a row. Clemens extended his career through injections and began it seems in Toronto where most people (including the Red Sox) believed his career would end. ARod apparently starting injecting in Texas where he started putting up serious power numbers.

Bonds may have the numbers either way, but as you know most of us hated him in college. And to be honest, his high pitched voice along with his arrogance makes me hate him even more now. So keep him out of the Hall. Forever.

I agree completely on Sosa and McGwire as they are steroid players. That is what they are. They would have been average to above average without roids. Rose should be in.

On to your question of U.S. soccer. Well, as it turns out today might be the worst day to respond as the U.S. just defeated the best team on the planet 2-0 to end Spain’s 35 match unbeaten streak (which tied a world record).

You are right about the Brazil match. They absolutely ran the U.S. off the field. Yet as shown by the Egypt match and today’s incredible upset, the U.S. isn’t horrible. They aren’t incapable of winning matches against the top teams. Yet they are not a top ten team in the world either. But there isn’t anything wrong.

The biggest reason why the United States hasn’t “taken over the world” when it comes to soccer is the popularity and origin of our other sports. The United States created basketball, football, and baseball. They are the games of this country. They began here and have been popular to varying degrees for years now. Thus when a young athlete grows up they start playing those three sports or maybe they play soccer at a young age but give up on it once they reach the teen years due to the popularity of the other three. Imagine if the best athletes in this nation played soccer? Some of them couldn’t do it for sure, but not all. Can you imagine if guys like Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, Vince Young, Reggie Bush, or Adrian Peterson played soccer instead?

The development and growth of the U.S. program is thanks in large part to guys who would have played other sports in the past. Guys like Clint Dempsey, Tim Howard, and Oguchi Onyewu (who I think would be a pretty good football player). This has changed how competitive the U.S. can be at the international level.

The other aspect that is hard for most American casual fans is our arrogance. We expect to win everything and don’t settle for less. This can be good, but it is also somewhat ridiculous. Traditional world powers like Brazil, Argentina, Portugal, and Spain don’t compete with our sports for athletes. Granted Spain and Argentina have produced some good basketball players, but the U.S. produces tons of great football and basketball players every year. You can compete on a small level with another sport, but U.S. soccer has an uphill climb in this respect.

With that said, why do you think you never embraced soccer? Why doesn’t the average American sports fan care about soccer?

Coffee Toffee and Brandon Morrow

When the Mariners drafted Brandon Morrow number five overall in 2006, I was really excited. I may have been excited because he was a high pick or because he was a college pitcher so supposedly he was closer to the majors. Or maybe it was the mid-to-high 90s fastball. In any case, Morrow provided an anticipation and excitement that could not be matched.

Until this weekend.

The Wendy’s sign read: “New Coffee Toffee Frosty”.

What? Unbelievable.

Now I am not a fast food addict or even frequenter anymore since the twenty pound weight loss of 2007-08. But if I am to eat some fast food, that fast food will be super fast and super Wendy’s. I love me some nuggets and have always loved me some Frosty. For years and years, Adam and I debated the Frosty. In the early 2000s (maybe the year 2000 itself), Adam claimed it to be ridiculous to call the Frosty a “chocolate Frosty” as I did often. I claimed that there were different flavors. Unfortunately if we take Wikipedia as a credible source – and why wouldn’t we? – then Adam is correct. The vanilla frosty was introduced in 2006.

Now they have Mix N’ Match Frosty and the brand new “Coffee Toffee Frosty”. So we know I love frosties and I love coffee flavored ice cream even more, so this is like drafting Brandon Morrow. I couldn’t wait to see him pitch. Throw in the toffee flavoring and it is like when the Mariners announced Morrow would start last season. Could it get any better?

Similar to the fiasco that is Brandon Morrow, the “Coffee Toffee Frosty” severely disappointed. Essentially I was drinking milk with chunks of something in it. I might as well suckle a cow. And Morrow might as well go to Tacoma because all he does in a Mariner uniform is make excuses. So my hope is that Morrow will take the time and the organization will give him the time to become a legit major league starter. To Morrow’s credit, he stated that he doesn’t mind if he spends the rest of the season in AAA if it means really refining all his pitches.

If only Wendy’s would take the same approach. Then maybe I could enjoy the “Coffee Toffee Frosty” and not be disappointed. Dave Thomas, you disappoint me. Brandon Morrow, I still have hope for you.

M's Pitching

When I played Little League baseball I was absolutely horrible at hitting. Think of the worst player you could ever imagine trying to hit a baseball and then throw up in your mouth. That was me.

I was scared of the ball. I swung meekly. I swung the bat like both my arms were broken. I trembled with fear every time the pitcher wound up. I flat out sucked at hitting.

Pitching on the other hand – I was pretty good. Granted it was the fourth and fifth grade, but I had some major highlights. I struck out four guys in an inning. I struck out my fruncle. My team won the CYO championship for teams that aren’t good at baseball.

So it is with this in mind that I must remind myself as a Mariner fan that I like this team. It is hard sometimes with the putrid middle infield defense and the flailing bats scoring zero or one runs all the time. Really it is a lot. In 59 games, the Mariners have scored zero or one runs 16 times (3-13 record, yes they have won three 1-0 games). That is 27% of the time! Ridiculous. The Mariners are last in the American League in runs scored, RBI, and OPS. They are third to last in home runs. They stink offensively. Yet somehow they are 29-30 overall and only 4.5 games out of first place in mid-June.

Like me, the Mariners are absurdly good on the mound. Ok maybe they are a tad better than me. The M’s rank first in the American League in ERA at 3.69. They are the only team under 4.00. They have three starters in the top nine in ERA. That is beyond my wildest dreams. Erik Bedard is 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA (#4 in the league), Felix Hernandez is 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA (#8), and Jarrod Washburn is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA (#9). Recent addition Jason Vargas has only six starts and not enough innings to qualify, but is actually better than all of them with a 2.35 ERA. Those are four of the five starters right now. Amazing.

And then on a night like tonight where King Felix goes seven innings, it gets even tougher. Sean White is currently in the set up role with a 1.48 ERA and David Aardsma pitches the ninth, sitting nicely with a 1.84 ERA. What does this mean? It means that I will take a team that plays like this over a team that bashes and can’t pitch. Many would disagree with me, pointing to the excitement of mid-1990s teams in the Kingdome. People like runs. I like pitching. Maybe it is because I sucked at hitting, but I don’t buy it. I mean I absolutely dominated Dave and Ravi the last time we played wiffleball and on my wedding day I had one at bat. Result? Home run. Therefore not only am I awesome at sports that don’t matter, but the Mariners are awesome at pitching. It’s a win-win.

What A Day

The day began as I received a text message from a friend of mine who wakes up at 4:30 a.m. every day. I know….what is he thinking? Anyway the text said, “Nick Montana committed to us!” This coming only hours after the Mariners made my wish come true by drafting the best hitter in the draft in Dustin Ackley.

What a start.

As the day went on and I ran some stairs (they were really long and steep), nearly passing out in the process, I read some more good news. Brandon Morrow is going to be a starter again. What? This is awesome. And then I read that Yuniesky Betancourt is on his last legs as a Mariner. Even better!

What a glorious sports day in Seattle.

So which one is the best news of all four?

In terms of surprise, I vote Morrow, Montana, Ackley, then Betancourt. I mean Morrow said in March that he would never be a starter again. He related it to having diabetes, arm issues, and being a general disappointment to all Lincecum fans across the nation. So moving back to being a starter (which everyone in Seattle wants) was a shocker. Montana took an unofficial visit this past weekend – where it was high 70s and sunny, ha ha fooled you – and the Huskies just lost out on local QB sensation Jake Heaps of Skyline High School only five days ago. On that date, multiple recruiting experts said Montana was still a long shot. Ackley was somewhat expected and Betancourt has been sucking for awhile.

In terms of awesomeness, I vote Ackley, Montana, Morrow, then Betancourt. Read my previous blog entry for why Ackley is the man. Nick Montana is Joe Montana’s son, plus he had offers from schools like Cal, Alabama, and Notre Dame. If Morrow can make the transition then he might have saved the future rotation. Betancourt, I still hate you.

What do you think? Which one is most surprising? Most awesome?

Draft Dustin Ackley Today

When the Nationals draft the buzz sensation that is Stephen Strasburg at about 3:00 p.m. today, the Mariners will officially be on the clock with the #2 overall pick. I have a few words of advice for Los Marineros.

Draft Dustin Ackley.

Please.

Now before you stop reading because you don’t care about the MLB draft or you know all the stories of top picks who end up sucking (hello Jeff Clement, any day now!), stay with me. (Although let’s be honest, no one is really reading). Traditionally the Mariners have held a number of high draft picks. If you compare their success to many other Major League teams, they actually hold up pretty well. It is hard to argue with either Ken Griffey Jr (#1 overall in 1987) or Alex Rodriguez (#1 overall in 1993) as draft picks. They blew some top ones as well (Marc Newfield as #6 overall in 1990, Jose Cruz as #3 overall in 1995, Roger Salkeld as #3 overall in 1989), but gained value with some lower picks as well. Yet we can’t really evaluate the Mariners franchise. We need to look at the man in charge, Jack Zduriencik.

When purusing the interweb, I found a site that listed the top 20 Brewers prospects coming into this season. Out of the top eleven, seven were drafted in the past three years in the first five rounds of the draft. That is pretty good proof right there that JZ has an eye for talent. Who knows if they will make an impact, but they are rated very highly in the minor league system. This hasn’t always been the case with the M’s in the past. In fact, the past two years have given us some prospects like Dennis Raben and Brett Lorin who are a long way away from making an impact or others like Josh Fields and Phillipe Aumont who will make neat relievers. JZ will get it done right. Need more proof?

1999 First Round Pick – Ben Sheets. 2001 Second Round Pick – JJ Hardy. 2002 First Round Pick – Prince Fielder. 2003 First Round Pick – Rickie Weeks. 2004 Second Round Pick – Yovani Gallardo. 2005 First Round Pick – Ryan Braun.

Does this give me confidence? Yes. Why? Because I can read and I am not an idiot.

But why Ackley? You can find all the reasons on various websites like USS Mariner, Lookout Landing or even ESPN.com, but I will give you a little taste.

Hitting .411 with 22 homers and 70 RBI while left handed (perfect for Safeco). Lookout Landing has a great comparison of other top prospects or picks and their junior years. Ackley blows them away. He holds the top career average at North Carolina, almost twenty points above BJ Surhoff and Brian Roberts. He also has good speed and a ridiculous OPS (I know it is college). Supposedly he broke an aluminum bat hitting a grand slam once as well. It took me 45 tries to break an aluminum bat on a large rock.

Even beyond the numbers, I watched Ackley hit this weekend against East Carolina on ESPN. I missed the first at bat where he struck out. His second at bat he fell behind 0-2. He worked the count back to full and then walked. In his third at bat he appeared to hit a standard 4-6-3 double play, but beat the throw. Good speed. In his fourth at bat with Carolina up 4-0 and a chance to go to the College World Series, he once again fell behind 0-2. He worked the count with two fouls back to 3-2. Then he hit an opposite field three run homer to essentially clinch the victory. I was sold. We need Ackley. With picks at #27 and #33, there is a good chance to get some college pitchers later. Draft Ackley please.

Should the M's Bat Ichiro 3rd?

"Once I got this far, I wanted to achieve it," Ichiro said, according to his translator. "Now I wish that I would have asked my wife, Yumiko, and my dog, Ikkyu, to come to the game today. But at the same time, if you think about it, if I didn't invite them, it means that much to me as well."

The only thing Ichiro does better than give quotes is get hits. He simply hits. Every time people write him off or think he is declining, he gets more hits. Infield hits. Home runs. Ripped line drives. All kind of hits. More hits than Michael Jackson and you know how much it hurts me to say that.

Once again Ichiro is in the midst of an incredible hitting streak. In fact, he broke his own team record as it now sits at 27 straight games. This stretch of dominance reminded me of the great Ichiro years of the past including 2001. I seem to always think back to 2001 and not for the reason you think. Obviously the Mariners won 116 games that year and then couldn’t get past the Yankees thanks to the absence of a dominant starter. Yet what I remember most that year is the amazing amount of clutch hits that team provided throughout the season. Leading the charge was Ichiro. Don’t believe me?

These numbers are ridiculous. He hit .350 that first year while winning the MVP. People still argue whether he deserved that award and I understand the debate. But how about the fact that he hit .420 with runners on base, .445 with runners in scoring position, and .460 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Those numbers are absurd.

Maybe I can help you understand how absurd with a little perspective. The consensus debate for best Mariners ever lies with Ichiro, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and Edgar Martinez. Griffey and Rodriguez both dealt with labels of being not clutch at one point or another while with the M’s. Edgar never came close to such a label. He, for many Mariner fans, is the definition of clutch. Edgar = clutch. Edgar never hit over .400 in any of those categories. He hit .365 in 1995 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Griffey tops out at .351 in the same category in 2001 and A-Rod .339 in 2000.

Well what about other greats – the non-Mariner edition? Barry Bonds, steroids or not, is generally considered the best offensive player in the past decade or so. I will also throw in Albert Pujols for current consideration. Bonds hit .423 with RISP and two outs in 2004. He never hit over .400 in the other years or categories. Pujols hit .435 with RISP and two outs in 2006. None other over .400. Ichiro actually improved in 2004 by hitting .472 with RISP and two outs and hit .431 in the same category in 2007. Three times! For his career Ichiro hits .350 in that category. No one else is close of those I discussed earlier.

Clearly there is evidence that Ichiro is the most clutch player in Mariner history. Additionally from the leadoff spot he has five seasons of 60 or more RBI. So why doesn’t he bat third? We may never know the complete answer. Lou Piniella, Bob Melvin, Mike Hargrove, John McLaren, and Jim Riggleman all either contemplated or tried this. All of them returned Ichiro to the lead off spot.

As it seems that with the Mariner offense in Dante’s depth of hell, they would turn to batting Ichiro third. The offense is deathly anemic at this point and needs help. In 2001, the Mariners hit .305 as a team with runners on, .295 with runners in scoring position, .262 with runners in scoring position and two outs and .279 in close and late situations. In 2009, the Mariners hit .258 with men on, .243 when they are in scoring position, .176 (ouch!) with runners in scoring position and two outs and .231 close and late. Awful. They actually are averaging two more chances per game in late and close situations, yet less opportunities in the other categories. Now the difference in average really hurts. The 2009 Mariners simply do not score.

The other options for players hitting third seem to be Adrian Beltre, Russell Branyan, Ken Griffey Jr, Jose Lopez, Mike Sweeney (although a diminishing platooner) and Wladimir Balentein (everyone’s favorite Dutch dude – what do you call someone from Dutch land?). Griffey (.217 runners on, .161 RISP, .077 RISP and two outs) and Balentein (.184, .182, .200) stink at this whole clutch thing. Lopez actually hits .300 with RISP and two outs. Beltre does well before there are two outs (.265, .296, .200), as does Branyan (.329, .273, .118). Sweeney will probably be cut soon. So how about Ichiro? Of course Ichiro is having his worst season in these categories at .281, .250, and .222. Maybe this is why the Mariners can’t score.

Nevertheless players usually return to their norms with the exception of an occasional awful year or amazing year. Ichiro seems to be pretty normal for his standards so we can expect him to get closer to his career numbers. With the apparent aversion to batting third by the man himself, Manager Don Wakamatsu’s best solution might be to bat some players with high on base percentages in the eighth and ninth spots to give Ichiro more opportunities to hit with runners on. Thankfully Don thinks like I do. Or maybe he doesn’t but it appears that he does. Or maybe he does and we are both idiots. Nevertheless, Endy Chavez has been hitting eighth and Franklin Gutierrez ninth. Meanwhile the worst hitter on the team, Rob Johnson, is hitting in a more traditional better hitting spot of seventh. Chavez is fifth in on base percentage at .331 and Gutierrez is third at .348. Genius. Thank you new regime. Now go draft Dustin Ackley.

Can I Get a Philly Cheesesteak? Can I Get a What What?

After spending hours researching the absolute putrid performance of Bill Bavasi as Mariners General Manager, I felt quite depressed. Then I felt even more depressed when I thought about the Erik Bedard trade again. Then I felt the most depressed when I saw Larry Stone of the Seattle Times write essentially the same article, yet he gets paid to do it and they talk about him as a genius on sports radio. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2009264288_bill_bavasi_gets_ripped_and.html#continue)
Is there any hope? Yes. Thankfully.

Jack Zduriencik is our hope. The new JZ. Hence the title of the post.

(In college, a guy we hung out with named Matt asked the lady at the cafeteria that question after Adam ordered a Philly Cheesesteak. One of the top lunch room moments of all time).

Since becoming the GM of the beloved hometown nine, he has done the following:
Traded JJ Putz, Sean Green, Jeremy Reed, and Luis Valbuena for Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Ezekiel Carrera, Endy Chavez, and Franklin Gutierrez.

Traded Heilman to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.

Signed Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey Jr.

Traded Fabian Williamson for David Aardsma.

How did those deals work out? In a few months time better than all of Bavasi’s actions put together.

I am not ready to say Jack Z is the savior. But he has given me hope. And as Winston Churchill once said, “All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom; justice; honor; duty; mercy; hope.” Ignore the other words, just focus on the hope. Everyone knows that is what Churchill meant.

Putz instantly became the eighth inning set up guy for the Mets (at $6 million per year and 32 years of age) and has not been lights out. He hasn’t been bad necessarily, but a 3.81 ERA sits below Sean White, Shawn Kelley, and David Aardsma of the Mariners (who combined make about $1.2 million). Meanwhile Sean Green has been pretty awful with an 0-2 record, 6.98 ERA, and 1.86 WHIP. Jeremy Reed remains irrelevant as he was for years in Seattle. Congrats Jeremy, you suck but not enough for anyone to care.

The Indians received Luis Valbuena who is now on the major league roster, but hitting only .188. He was great in AAA at .321 and .436 OBP. The Indians received Joe Smith (really that is his name) who has been atrocious (7.11 ERA in 6 1/3 innings all in April).

The Mariners gained two starting outfielders in Chavez and Gutierrez who immediately changed the outfield defense. Chavez has a UZR of 2.4 (ultimate zone rating) and Gutierrez sits at 6.1. That puts Franklin only behind Mike Cameron (a golden god in my book) and Matt Kemp among all major league center fielders. Offensively neither will be confused for Evan Longoria (or Eva Longoria on some days) as Chavez sits at .289, 2 HR, 13 RBI, and eight steals. Gutierrez is hitting .258 with three homers and 19 RBI. Yet when I examined a little closer, Gutierrez adds a lot of value. He is in the top five of OBP among the Mariners – nothing to brag about necessarily – and has swung at only 22.4% of pitches outside the strike zone. That percentage is tops on the M’s. In comparison, Jose Lopez swings at 33.3%, Yuniesky Betancourt at 38.6%, and Adrian Beltre at 39.2%. All three of those players sit in the bottom eight of eligible players in the AL. Pathetic.

Jack Z’s acquisitions are paying dividends already. Three of the top four hitters on the Mariners in terms of average where JZ’s acquisitions. Four of the top five OBP as I said earlier. The other player? Ichiro.

Meanwhile Cedeno provides some back up infield help and Garrett Olson has been serviceable as a spot starter. He dominated the Giants and then was cruising for five against the Angels until he started remembering he was Garrett Olson.

Aardsma is almost lights out as closer since replacing Brandon Morrow. He blew it yesterday after throwing a fourth consecutive day, but admitted to having nothing in his arm. As a fellow self-depricator like Aardsma, I believe him when he says that. He isn’t LeBron blowing smoke up anything that moves. Even with yesterday’s blow up, Aardsma has a 2.13 ERA, hitters are only batting .169 against him, and he is eight for nine in save opportunities. The man they traded, Fabian Williamson, is having a good season with a 2.82 ERA in A, but that is low minors. Plus the Mariners have 72 first round draft picks to become relievers in the future with Philipe Aumont in A and Josh Fields in AA already.

Mike Carp is hitting .291 with eight homers and 24 RBI (also .935 OPS) in AAA and Carrerra is raking in AA with a .351 average.

Russell Branyan is dominating for some reason as he sits at #8 in the AL in OBP, #4 in OPS, and leads the team with 11 homers. He is hitting an ungodly (for Branyan) .323 with 23 RBI. Cost? $1.4 million. Ken Griffey is not excelling, nor is he average. Yet he only cost $2 million for one year. Big deal. Remember Bavasi gave the worst pitcher in the league $48 million over four years. I hate you Carlos Silva.

As you can see, JZ (why would I call him anything else?) dominates Bavasi. Yet it is early. A lot could change for the better or the worse. The next two tests come up quickly for JZ in the MLB draft (#2, #27, and #33 overall picks) and the trade deadline (Beltre, Bedard, Washburn?). Either way I imagine JZ sitting in his office with his Roc-A-Fella mates, saying to himself, “Bill Bavasi is the world’s biggest jackass”.