Should the M's Bat Ichiro 3rd?

"Once I got this far, I wanted to achieve it," Ichiro said, according to his translator. "Now I wish that I would have asked my wife, Yumiko, and my dog, Ikkyu, to come to the game today. But at the same time, if you think about it, if I didn't invite them, it means that much to me as well."

The only thing Ichiro does better than give quotes is get hits. He simply hits. Every time people write him off or think he is declining, he gets more hits. Infield hits. Home runs. Ripped line drives. All kind of hits. More hits than Michael Jackson and you know how much it hurts me to say that.

Once again Ichiro is in the midst of an incredible hitting streak. In fact, he broke his own team record as it now sits at 27 straight games. This stretch of dominance reminded me of the great Ichiro years of the past including 2001. I seem to always think back to 2001 and not for the reason you think. Obviously the Mariners won 116 games that year and then couldn’t get past the Yankees thanks to the absence of a dominant starter. Yet what I remember most that year is the amazing amount of clutch hits that team provided throughout the season. Leading the charge was Ichiro. Don’t believe me?

These numbers are ridiculous. He hit .350 that first year while winning the MVP. People still argue whether he deserved that award and I understand the debate. But how about the fact that he hit .420 with runners on base, .445 with runners in scoring position, and .460 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Those numbers are absurd.

Maybe I can help you understand how absurd with a little perspective. The consensus debate for best Mariners ever lies with Ichiro, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and Edgar Martinez. Griffey and Rodriguez both dealt with labels of being not clutch at one point or another while with the M’s. Edgar never came close to such a label. He, for many Mariner fans, is the definition of clutch. Edgar = clutch. Edgar never hit over .400 in any of those categories. He hit .365 in 1995 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Griffey tops out at .351 in the same category in 2001 and A-Rod .339 in 2000.

Well what about other greats – the non-Mariner edition? Barry Bonds, steroids or not, is generally considered the best offensive player in the past decade or so. I will also throw in Albert Pujols for current consideration. Bonds hit .423 with RISP and two outs in 2004. He never hit over .400 in the other years or categories. Pujols hit .435 with RISP and two outs in 2006. None other over .400. Ichiro actually improved in 2004 by hitting .472 with RISP and two outs and hit .431 in the same category in 2007. Three times! For his career Ichiro hits .350 in that category. No one else is close of those I discussed earlier.

Clearly there is evidence that Ichiro is the most clutch player in Mariner history. Additionally from the leadoff spot he has five seasons of 60 or more RBI. So why doesn’t he bat third? We may never know the complete answer. Lou Piniella, Bob Melvin, Mike Hargrove, John McLaren, and Jim Riggleman all either contemplated or tried this. All of them returned Ichiro to the lead off spot.

As it seems that with the Mariner offense in Dante’s depth of hell, they would turn to batting Ichiro third. The offense is deathly anemic at this point and needs help. In 2001, the Mariners hit .305 as a team with runners on, .295 with runners in scoring position, .262 with runners in scoring position and two outs and .279 in close and late situations. In 2009, the Mariners hit .258 with men on, .243 when they are in scoring position, .176 (ouch!) with runners in scoring position and two outs and .231 close and late. Awful. They actually are averaging two more chances per game in late and close situations, yet less opportunities in the other categories. Now the difference in average really hurts. The 2009 Mariners simply do not score.

The other options for players hitting third seem to be Adrian Beltre, Russell Branyan, Ken Griffey Jr, Jose Lopez, Mike Sweeney (although a diminishing platooner) and Wladimir Balentein (everyone’s favorite Dutch dude – what do you call someone from Dutch land?). Griffey (.217 runners on, .161 RISP, .077 RISP and two outs) and Balentein (.184, .182, .200) stink at this whole clutch thing. Lopez actually hits .300 with RISP and two outs. Beltre does well before there are two outs (.265, .296, .200), as does Branyan (.329, .273, .118). Sweeney will probably be cut soon. So how about Ichiro? Of course Ichiro is having his worst season in these categories at .281, .250, and .222. Maybe this is why the Mariners can’t score.

Nevertheless players usually return to their norms with the exception of an occasional awful year or amazing year. Ichiro seems to be pretty normal for his standards so we can expect him to get closer to his career numbers. With the apparent aversion to batting third by the man himself, Manager Don Wakamatsu’s best solution might be to bat some players with high on base percentages in the eighth and ninth spots to give Ichiro more opportunities to hit with runners on. Thankfully Don thinks like I do. Or maybe he doesn’t but it appears that he does. Or maybe he does and we are both idiots. Nevertheless, Endy Chavez has been hitting eighth and Franklin Gutierrez ninth. Meanwhile the worst hitter on the team, Rob Johnson, is hitting in a more traditional better hitting spot of seventh. Chavez is fifth in on base percentage at .331 and Gutierrez is third at .348. Genius. Thank you new regime. Now go draft Dustin Ackley.