The question leading up to the 2007 NFL Draft this weekend is like always, “who will go #1?”
Last year everyone knew who it would be. Reggie Bush. Everyone except the Texans. As you know, they went with Mario Williams. I am pretty sure that if Mario has 12 sacks next year it would be the wrong call still.
The #1 overall pick is a big deal. The Texans have not sniffed the playoffs yet and their two #1 overalls have been David Carr and Mario Williams. They could have had Julius Peppers in 2002 and Reggie Bush last year. That would have been nice, right?
Teams who do it right can have their franchises changed forever like the Colts with Peyton Manning and the Bengals with Carson Palmer.
The early candidates for this year’s #1 overall were JaMarcus Russell (LSU, QB), Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech, WR), Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin), Brady Quinn (Notre Dame, QB), Gaines Adams (Clemson, DE), and LaRon Landry (LSU, S). That list quickly went down to Russell, Johnson, and Quinn. At this point it is safe to say it is down to Johnson and Russell. So who do the Raiders take?
To answer that question one must look at the history of quarterbacks and wide receivers in the draft. I looked back to all the #1 overalls since 1983 (kind of an arbitrary year to pick, but since the league changes style such as passing more, I didn’t want to go back too far) and found most #1 overalls were quarterbacks.
There were some very good: Elway (1983), Aikman (1989), Peyton (1998)
Some good: Palmer (2003), Bledsoe (1993), Testaverde (1987)
Some ok, jury still out: Vick (2001), Eli (2004), Smith (2005)
Some bad: George (1990), Couch (1999), Carr (2002)
As you can see, it isn’t a sure thing.
But we don’t have much data on wide receivers. Just two have been selected #1 overall in this time period. Keyshawn in 1996 and Irving Fryar in 1984. Both players have enjoyed nice careers, but probably aren’t worthy of a #1 overall.
In fact, many teams in the past ten years would probably take a different #1 overall if they could. I have listed the #1 overalls with the player that should have been taken below and their overall pick. I only considered players in the top ten of each year as it seems unlikely that a team would “reach” below that point. Even if that player turned out to be a star, if nine other teams passed they weren’t going to go #1 overall no matter what.
1995: Ki Jana Carter
Steve McNair (#3)
1996: Keyshawn Johnson
Jonathan Ogden (#4)
1997: Orlando Pace
1998: Peyton Manning
1999: Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb (#2, really hard to pick over Torry Holt and Champ Bailey here)
2000: Courtney Brown
Brian Urlacher (#9)
2001: Michael Vick
LaDanian Tomlinson (#5)
2002: David Carr
Julius Peppers (#2)
2003: Carson Palmer
2004: Eli Manning
Philip Rivers (#4)
2005: Alex Smith
Pacman Jones (#6)
Just kidding.
2006: Mario Williams
Reggie Bush (#2)
So over the past 11 drafts, five QBs should have been taken #1 overall. Two offensive tackles. Two running backs. And two defensive players (probably the two best in the game).
But does drafting a QB early lead to success? I looked at the past four years of the NFL playoffs as a sample to test it. With six teams in each conference making it, that involves 48 total teams (obviously the Patriots are counted four times and so are the Seahawks, holla!).
Of the 48 teams, 22 were led by 1st round picks at quarterback. There are some repeats here, so let’s look at the individuals. There were 12 individuals out of a possible 26 that were first round picks. That is 46.1%, which is pretty impressive. How many were top 5 picks? Six. And #1 overall? Four – Manning, Manning, Palmer, and Vick.
Peyton Manning has one Super Bowl. The other three have zero. Elway won two. Aikman won three. Not a guarantee, but Irving Fryar never won a Super Bowl. Keyshawn did with Tampa Bay.
Unless you want to wait to draft a QB in the 6th round (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, and Marc Bulger), you might be better off taking one with the #1 overall pick. But before we crown Russell the man, we should take a look at the players and the Raiders’ needs.
Oakland suffers at the quarterback position. I mean, they are really bad. The Raiders ran out Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter, and contemplated Jeff George in 2006. They haven’t had any success at the position since Rich Gannon. And I don’t think Walter is the answer despite b
eing young. Meanwhile at wide receiver they are not short on talent. Maybe on character, but not talent. Randy Moss and Jerry Porter lead the way, along with Ronald Curry. Doug Gabriel is ok as well.
Calvin Johnson evokes some memories of Randy Moss actually. Johnson ran a 4.35 in the 40 at the NFL combine. With someone else’s shoes. He wasn’t even going to run, but the competitor in him decided it was a good idea. So he borrowed someone else’s shoes and blew away all the NFL scouts. He also posted a 42 ½ inch vertical and an 11 foot, 7 inch broad jump. Apparently the broad jump is jumping as far as you can from a position standing still. Hmmm, I think I would jump 1 foot, 2 inches. A NFL scout was quoted as saying it was the farthest he ever say a player jump. Ever.
Johnson pulled down 76 catches for 1202 yards and 15 touchdowns last year as a junior. He ranks in the top five in Georgia Tech history in catches (5th), yards (3rd), touchdowns (tied 1st), and 100 yard games (1st) in only three seasons. He is regarded as a good guy with no off the field issues (unlike Moss).
Russell puts up some impressive numbers of his own. Last season he completed 232 of 342 passes (67.8%) for 3129 yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions. The previous year he threw for 2443 yards (while completing 60.5% of his passes) for 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He is the first quarterback in LSU history to lead the Tigers to
back-to-back double digit wins (10 in 2005, 11 last year). Russell was named the 2007 Sugar Bowl MVP after throwing for a career high 332 yards. He wins games.
The other factor in this draft is the depth at wide receiver. Ted Ginn Jr (Ohio State), Dwayne Bowe (LSU), Robert Meachem (Tennessee) and Dwayne Jarrett (USC) are all projected to be first round picks. Steve Smith (USC) and Sidney Rice (South Carolina) are borderline first round picks as well. I don’t think any of them can do what Calvin Johnson can do though.
That is what makes this truly hard. Johnson is special and could change games. Yet the reality is that the quarterback has the ball in his hands on every snap. The quarterback makes the most decisions in each game. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. And I believe JaMarcus Russell will be a good one.
Last year everyone knew who it would be. Reggie Bush. Everyone except the Texans. As you know, they went with Mario Williams. I am pretty sure that if Mario has 12 sacks next year it would be the wrong call still.
The #1 overall pick is a big deal. The Texans have not sniffed the playoffs yet and their two #1 overalls have been David Carr and Mario Williams. They could have had Julius Peppers in 2002 and Reggie Bush last year. That would have been nice, right?
Teams who do it right can have their franchises changed forever like the Colts with Peyton Manning and the Bengals with Carson Palmer.
The early candidates for this year’s #1 overall were JaMarcus Russell (LSU, QB), Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech, WR), Joe Thomas (OT, Wisconsin), Brady Quinn (Notre Dame, QB), Gaines Adams (Clemson, DE), and LaRon Landry (LSU, S). That list quickly went down to Russell, Johnson, and Quinn. At this point it is safe to say it is down to Johnson and Russell. So who do the Raiders take?
To answer that question one must look at the history of quarterbacks and wide receivers in the draft. I looked back to all the #1 overalls since 1983 (kind of an arbitrary year to pick, but since the league changes style such as passing more, I didn’t want to go back too far) and found most #1 overalls were quarterbacks.
There were some very good: Elway (1983), Aikman (1989), Peyton (1998)
Some good: Palmer (2003), Bledsoe (1993), Testaverde (1987)
Some ok, jury still out: Vick (2001), Eli (2004), Smith (2005)
Some bad: George (1990), Couch (1999), Carr (2002)
As you can see, it isn’t a sure thing.
But we don’t have much data on wide receivers. Just two have been selected #1 overall in this time period. Keyshawn in 1996 and Irving Fryar in 1984. Both players have enjoyed nice careers, but probably aren’t worthy of a #1 overall.
In fact, many teams in the past ten years would probably take a different #1 overall if they could. I have listed the #1 overalls with the player that should have been taken below and their overall pick. I only considered players in the top ten of each year as it seems unlikely that a team would “reach” below that point. Even if that player turned out to be a star, if nine other teams passed they weren’t going to go #1 overall no matter what.
1995: Ki Jana Carter
Steve McNair (#3)
1996: Keyshawn Johnson
Jonathan Ogden (#4)
1997: Orlando Pace
1998: Peyton Manning
1999: Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb (#2, really hard to pick over Torry Holt and Champ Bailey here)
2000: Courtney Brown
Brian Urlacher (#9)
2001: Michael Vick
LaDanian Tomlinson (#5)
2002: David Carr
Julius Peppers (#2)
2003: Carson Palmer
2004: Eli Manning
Philip Rivers (#4)
2005: Alex Smith
Pacman Jones (#6)
Just kidding.
2006: Mario Williams
Reggie Bush (#2)
So over the past 11 drafts, five QBs should have been taken #1 overall. Two offensive tackles. Two running backs. And two defensive players (probably the two best in the game).
But does drafting a QB early lead to success? I looked at the past four years of the NFL playoffs as a sample to test it. With six teams in each conference making it, that involves 48 total teams (obviously the Patriots are counted four times and so are the Seahawks, holla!).
Of the 48 teams, 22 were led by 1st round picks at quarterback. There are some repeats here, so let’s look at the individuals. There were 12 individuals out of a possible 26 that were first round picks. That is 46.1%, which is pretty impressive. How many were top 5 picks? Six. And #1 overall? Four – Manning, Manning, Palmer, and Vick.
Peyton Manning has one Super Bowl. The other three have zero. Elway won two. Aikman won three. Not a guarantee, but Irving Fryar never won a Super Bowl. Keyshawn did with Tampa Bay.
Unless you want to wait to draft a QB in the 6th round (Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, and Marc Bulger), you might be better off taking one with the #1 overall pick. But before we crown Russell the man, we should take a look at the players and the Raiders’ needs.
Oakland suffers at the quarterback position. I mean, they are really bad. The Raiders ran out Aaron Brooks, Andrew Walter, and contemplated Jeff George in 2006. They haven’t had any success at the position since Rich Gannon. And I don’t think Walter is the answer despite b
eing young. Meanwhile at wide receiver they are not short on talent. Maybe on character, but not talent. Randy Moss and Jerry Porter lead the way, along with Ronald Curry. Doug Gabriel is ok as well.Calvin Johnson evokes some memories of Randy Moss actually. Johnson ran a 4.35 in the 40 at the NFL combine. With someone else’s shoes. He wasn’t even going to run, but the competitor in him decided it was a good idea. So he borrowed someone else’s shoes and blew away all the NFL scouts. He also posted a 42 ½ inch vertical and an 11 foot, 7 inch broad jump. Apparently the broad jump is jumping as far as you can from a position standing still. Hmmm, I think I would jump 1 foot, 2 inches. A NFL scout was quoted as saying it was the farthest he ever say a player jump. Ever.
Johnson pulled down 76 catches for 1202 yards and 15 touchdowns last year as a junior. He ranks in the top five in Georgia Tech history in catches (5th), yards (3rd), touchdowns (tied 1st), and 100 yard games (1st) in only three seasons. He is regarded as a good guy with no off the field issues (unlike Moss).
Russell puts up some impressive numbers of his own. Last season he completed 232 of 342 passes (67.8%) for 3129 yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions. The previous year he threw for 2443 yards (while completing 60.5% of his passes) for 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He is the first quarterback in LSU history to lead the Tigers to
back-to-back double digit wins (10 in 2005, 11 last year). Russell was named the 2007 Sugar Bowl MVP after throwing for a career high 332 yards. He wins games.The other factor in this draft is the depth at wide receiver. Ted Ginn Jr (Ohio State), Dwayne Bowe (LSU), Robert Meachem (Tennessee) and Dwayne Jarrett (USC) are all projected to be first round picks. Steve Smith (USC) and Sidney Rice (South Carolina) are borderline first round picks as well. I don’t think any of them can do what Calvin Johnson can do though.
That is what makes this truly hard. Johnson is special and could change games. Yet the reality is that the quarterback has the ball in his hands on every snap. The quarterback makes the most decisions in each game. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. And I believe JaMarcus Russell will be a good one.
With that said, the #1 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft is….JaMarcus Russell from LSU. Let’s just hope he is better than David Carr.
2 comments:
Only part way through but not sure I agree with Rivers being the pick in 2004. I still don't think very highly of him. Give me Fitz or Sean Taylor (even with the off-field stuff) over Rivers or Manning. I may even take Reggie Williams.....wait, no I wouldn't.
Is it worth taking a QB early if your line is not so good? I have read that one of the reasons why they like jaMarcus is that he is an athlete that can run when the play breaks down, a scenario that happened often in Oakland.
I don't think LaMont Jordan did anything on the ground either.
Goes back to the line.
Could David Carr have been a good QB with a little protection? I think so. The early haunting of NFL defenses tossing you around like a rag doll can have impacts well into the future (again, ask David Carr or Derek Anderson, who is just getting over his USC demons).
So what am I saying? I think the decision comes down to CJ or big Joe Thomas.
One scenario:
Get a QB in free agency for the short-term (maybe even Culpepper) and develop Walters. Shore up the friggin line with maybe a Joe Staley (if he lasts), Tony Ugoh or Ben Grubbs in the 2nd Round.
Then take the greatest gift to the NFL since last year....Calvin Johnson.
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