A-Rod, Griffey, and The Future

How ridiculous is Alex Rodriguez right now?

I know everone has opinions on A-Rod and I haven't always been a big fan, but you cannot ignore him or even criticize him right now. He is hitting .369 with 12 home runs and 30 RBI. 12 home runs in 15 games? That is insane.

One of my links to the right is Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com. He provides links to stories on every team in baseball as well as his own insight. Today he wrote about A-Rod. It says in his column that Rodriguez might start getting walked like Bonds did in his 73 home run season. You have to walk him now.

Also interesting from Olney's column is A-Rod's success (or lack there of) when the player in front of him is intentionally walked. This fuels the fire of all those (me included) who claim he does not come through in the clutch.

Career he is only 4 for 22 in these situations. Thus far no one has tried it in April. And why would you? A-Rod's April only compares to Pujols in 2004 (14 hr, 32 RBI) and Ken Griffey in 1997 (13 hr, 30 RBI). Now I could definitely play the "what if" game about Rodriguez and Griffey. That will just get me to upset about the current state of affairs in Seattle.

I have thought recently about where Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey will end up in history. Some have argued that Alex may end up being the greatest player to ever play the game. He will need to win a championship or two, but his numbers may back it up.

Rodriguez is a career .306 hitter (92nd best all-time). His other ranks:

Home Runs 476 (25th all-time)
RBI 1377 (68th all-time)
Runs 1378 (85th all-time)
Hits 2090 (205th all-time)
Doubles 370 (193rd all-time)

A-Rod is 31 years old. He has averaged 41 HR, 120 RBI, 184 hits, 122 runs, and 32 doubles per year over the past 11 years. I would guess he could keep that pace for six more seasons. Then he would probably stay around at a lower pace for four more years.

That puts him around 750-770 home runs (top five all-time), 2200 RBI (top three all-time), over 3000 hits, 2100 or so runs scored (top 10 all-time), and 570 doubles (top 25 all-time). Ridiculous.

While looking at his numbers all-time, I was surpised at where Griffey ranks currently.



Griffey is a .290 career hitter with 563 HR (10th all-time), 1614 RBI (24th all-time), 453 doubles (75th all-time) and 2425 hits. Obviously Junior is not going to put up the huge numers anymore, but his career is very impressive. He could end up in the top five in homers and top 15 in RBI when he retires.

Ok now I am slightly depressed at what could have been. What am I left with? The future. Ichiro has broken some records, won a MVP, blah blah. But I look to the future. While I am almost positive I will never see Griffey or A-Rod clones coming up through the M's farm system, I have a tiny bit of hope.

Assuming Felix gets over this little injury and comes back the same, you have to like the top of the rotation for years to come. Brandon Morrow should continue to progress to be a strong #2 starter in a couple years. He might even be in the rotation by the end of this season or early next year. The club also likes a lefty starter Ryan Feierabend who is in AAA.

So maybe you have three starters. They have Putz for awhile in addition to Mark Lowe (hopefully back healthy) and Eric O'Flaherty from the left side.

The future of the line-up should be focused around Betancourt and Lopez (both signed long term extensions recently). Beltre is under contract for a few more years, but prospect Carlos Triunfel (A Wisconsin) might take that spot in 2-3 years. Jeff Clement (AAA Tacoma) should eventually become the catcher and Adam Jones (AAA Tacoma) will play the outfield. So six regulars in the line-up could come from the farm system. That is the optomistic view.

No A-Rods and no Griffeys, but Felix and Morrow could be the best pitching duo in club history. Again you can sense the optomism. We don't know much about Morrow yet, but he throws 98 with decent movement. And they used a top 10 pick on him so you have got to hope.

Here is a look at the Mariners top 10 prospects (not in the majors) and how they are doing thus far (from the ussmariner.com Future Forty):



1. Carlos Triunfel, SS, A Wisconsin - .222, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .465 OPS
2. Adam Jones, OF, AAA Tacoma - .333, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .870 OPS
3. Jeff Clement, C, AAA Tacoma - .224, 1 HR, 8 RBI, .670 OPS
4. Ryan Feierabend, LHP, AAA Tacoma - 0-1, 2.76 ERA, 15 K, 16 1/3 IP
5. Tony Butler, LHP, A Wisconsin - 0-0, 1.42 ERA, 7 K, 6 1/3 IP
6. Alex Liddi, 3B, A Wisconsin - .147, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .580 OPS
7. Greg Halman, OF, A Wisconsin - .195, 0 HR, 5 RBI, .429 OPS
8. Chris Tillman, RHP, A Wisconsin - 0-1, 2.79 ERA, 15 K, 9 2/3 IP
9. Justin Thomas, LHP, AA W. Tenn - 0-1, 1.80 ERA, 6 K, 5 IP
10. Bryan LaHair, 1B, AAA Tacoma - .220, HR, 6 RBI, .585 OPS

I will update this throughout the year. And look at a couple clubs of interest to my friends (A's, Giants, Red Sox). I just hope the M's don't mess it up like usual.