Thursday, May 3, 2007

Hot or Not?

In case you hadn’t noticed, the Seattle Mariners have won 7 out of the last 8 games. They sit one game out of first place at 12-10 overall. Enjoy it now. It may not last.

I indicated a little while back that the Mariners are successful when their starting pitching can go deeper into games. Obviously this isn’t fricking rocket science. Most teams follow this plan to success. Yet it is particularly true with the Mariners due to the lack of hitting and a very good bullpen.

During this eight game stretch, the starting pitchers averaged 5.75 innings per start with an ERA at 3.52 collectively. Now take into account the worst pitcher on Earth starting one game (strangely the game they lost) and it gets even better. Minus Jeff “I Hate You” Weaver, the starters averaged 6.53 innings per start and posted an outstanding 2.36 ERA in that time. 2.36 is ridiculous.

The bullpen has been even better. In 26 total innings pitched, the pen gave up only five total earned runs for a blistering 1.73 ERA. The two set up guys and the closer dominated. Brandon Morrow threw 6 1/3 innings of scoreless ball, posting a 2-0 record with eight strikeouts. Lefty George Sherrill pitched two innings of scoreless ball and J.J. Putz tossed seven innings with no runs and recorded all five of his saves. With Horacio Ramirez, Miguel Batista, Cha Seung Baek, and Jarrod Washburn (twice) all pitching into the seventh, the Mariners can set up their bullpen to dominate.

Meanwhile the hitters really haven’t impressed, but they have done just enough. Jose Vidro posted a .411 mark during the eight games, followed by Jose Lopez at .357. Everyone else looked pretty average including Ichiro at .250, Raul Ibanez at .272, Adrian Beltre at .285, and Richie Sexson at .100 (ouch). Solo home runs in crucial spots proved to be the difference in many of the games.

So is it good or bad?

I would say just be happy for right now.

The M’s faced four awful offensive teams during this stretch. Texas (1 game) ranks 19th in runs scored and puts up 4.57 per game. Oakland (2 games) stands at 27th in runs per game, only averaging 3.85 per game. Kansas City (3 games) is horrible (22nd in total runs) at 3.82 per game and Chicago (2 games at 26th) isn’t really better at 3.96 runs per game.

Contrast that with the six game losing streak where pitchers were knocked around against Minnesota (2nd in MLB with .279 average) and the Angels (5th in MLB with .274 average).

Granted the pitching staffs of Oakland and Chicago are not horrible. The A’s are second in baseball with a 3.22 team ERA. But the Mariners faced Joe Blanton and Joe Kennedy. Not Rich Harden and Dan Haren. Chicago threw Javier Vazquez (ok) and John Danks (struggling). Beating Kevin Millwood, Jorge de la Rosa, and Brian Bannister doesn’t really excite me either.

The issue now is the schedule. Despite the confidence and renewed energy, the boys are heading on the road to face Boston (1 game), New York (4 games), and Detroit (3 games). Not to mention they come and face New York again (3) and the Angels (3) before getting a little break with San Diego and Tampa Bay.

Boston is a make up game from an earlier series so it is only one game, but they are throwing Dice-K and the team averages 5.19 runs per game (enough for D-K). The Yankees pitchers are struggling with a 4.86 team ERA (27th in MLB), but with the third most runs scored it may not matter. Especially with Weaver throwing on Saturday. Detroit also hits the ball well averaging five runs per game.

A tough stretch indeed and a better indicator of how good this team might or might not be. They need Ramirez to pitch well today and have a chance to win. They then need to win the two of the games that Weaver isn’t pitching in New York. And then hope to steal a couple from Detroit. My hope is loss to Boston, split with the Yankees, and win two of three against Detroit. Then I might start believing.

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